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A September report by Polish writer Tom Wojcik traces how the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz is affecting oil prices, fuel availability and fertiliser supplies. The report also describes pressure on European crops and food security, while some effects—particularly lower harvests—are still expected rather than fully measured.
Polish writer Tom Wojcik says the continuing closure of the Strait of Hormuz is connecting the Gulf conflict to higher oil prices, uneven fuel availability and risks to food supplies. His report, using figures through 26 September 2026, follows those effects from shipping and fuel markets to European crops and winter heating.
Wojcik’s account says US and Israeli military operations against Iran began in late February, and Iran has kept the strait closed since March using drones, missiles, mines and small boats. Tanker traffic has fallen by more than 90 percent. The International Energy Agency describes the disruption as the largest oil supply disruption the market has seen. A ceasefire briefly brought prices back to pre-war levels in early summer, but it later broke down. Brent crude was near $97 a barrel in early September, around $105 by mid-month and reached $108 on 24 September, according to the report.
Wojcik says Iran sent Washington a written proposal on 22 September calling for a regional ceasefire of up to 60 days, a phased reopening of the strait and an end to the US naval blockade. Washington rejected it. The report also describes the Red Sea route as under pressure after Houthi forces seized a key Yemeni port this month. Separately, Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries have contributed to lower refining output, and Moscow has restricted fuel exports, the report says.
The disruption has also affected shipping and food inputs. Wojcik reports that the Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF rose more than 2,300 percent for the year by early September, while some supertanker day rates reached about $860,000 on 10 September. The report says the strait normally carries up to 30 percent of internationally traded fertiliser. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization warns that scarcity could reduce yields and tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027.
From Oil Routes to Food Prices
The account matters because it traces a supply shock across sectors that households and governments depend on. Higher oil costs affect transport and heating; diesel is also needed to move food. Disrupted fertiliser deliveries can affect crops months later, meaning the full impact may emerge after the shipping crisis itself changes.
Wojcik’s examples show that price pressure does not always translate into a uniform shortage. In France, official figures cited in the report showed 15 percent of petrol stations had run out of petrol or diesel on 20 September, up from 11 percent two days earlier. The French government ruled out a national shortage. The report attributes many of the empty stations to demand at TotalEnergies sites, where petrol was capped at €1.99 a litre. That distinction matters: local gaps and long queues can coexist with an official assessment that the country has enough fuel overall.
The report also describes the risks for food assistance. It cites an estimate from the World Food Programme that sustained high oil prices could push up to 45 million more people into acute food insecurity. That is a projection, not a count of people already affected by the current closure.
A Season of Crop Strains
Wojcik situates the energy shock alongside pre-existing food pressures. The report says 2025 was the first year in the history of the Global Report on Food Crises with two confirmed famines, in Gaza and Sudan. It also cites an estimated 59 percent fall in food assistance funding between 2022 and 2025. Those figures describe the backdrop, rather than effects caused solely by the Hormuz closure.
European potato growers faced a sharp change in conditions, according to the report. After a continental glut in 2025, Polish growers harvested about seven million tonnes, 18 percent more than the prior year. Farmers in Belgium, France, the Netherlands and Germany then planted 14 percent less. Five heatwaves and drought followed. Their growers’ organisation expects a harvest down 25 percent, which would be among the smallest in a decade. In Belgium, the reported price for potatoes used in processing rose from €10 to €150 a tonne within days.
Wojcik frames these events from Poland, which he describes as bordering Europe’s largest war since 1945 and relying on coal and imported gas for heating. His wider argument is that countries have allowed stockpiles and other buffers to shrink as they depended on cheaper external suppliers. That is his interpretation of the risks; the reported market and crop figures are the evidence he uses to support it.
“The government rules out a shortage.”
— French government, as reported by Tom Wojcik
How Long the Supply Shock Lasts
The report does not establish when the Strait of Hormuz will reopen or whether a ceasefire agreement can be reached. It says Washington rejected Iran’s proposed road map, but the future course of military operations remains uncertain. The report also cites a claim that the US president expects bombing to resume after the November midterm elections; that is a reported expectation, not a confirmed decision.
Some figures describe current conditions, while others are forecasts. The potential effects of fertiliser scarcity on harvests are expected to continue into 2027, and the size of that impact is not yet known. The supplied report excerpt ends while discussing Paris milling-wheat prices, so it does not provide the full figure or further details on grain markets. It also does not quantify the effect of the crisis on Polish winter heating bills.
Reopening and Harvest Signals
The next indicators are whether tanker traffic through Hormuz resumes, whether diplomatic efforts produce a durable ceasefire and how oil prices respond. Fuel availability in France and other markets will also show whether local pump gaps ease as deliveries catch up with demand.
For food supplies, attention will turn to fertiliser deliveries and harvest results through late 2026 and into 2027. Those outcomes will help establish whether the warnings cited by Wojcik translate into smaller yields and tighter supply. The report offers a snapshot through 26 September; it does not provide later market data or a confirmed timeline for resolving the closure.
Key Questions
What is the main development in the report?
Tom Wojcik reports that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, with tanker traffic down more than 90 percent, and traces effects on oil prices, fuel access and fertiliser supplies.
Does the report say France has run out of fuel?
No. It cites official data showing that 15 percent of stations had run out of at least one type of fuel on 20 September, while the French government ruled out a national shortage. Wojcik says many affected stations were TotalEnergies outlets facing heavier demand because of a price cap.
What could the closure mean for food supplies?
The report says the strait normally carries up to 30 percent of internationally traded fertiliser. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization warns that scarcity could reduce yields and tighten supplies through late 2026 and into 2027; the eventual scale is not yet clear.
When might the disruption end?
The report gives no confirmed reopening date. Iran’s proposed ceasefire and phased reopening plan was rejected by Washington, and the status of any further negotiations is unclear.
Source: hn
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